What I Bet - Tuesday July 7h

Griffin Warner talks betting for Tuesday.
Griffin Warner opens episode 59 of What I Bet by looking back at two rough nights in Atlanta, where a blown ninth inning save on Sunday and a brutal extra inning loss on Monday turned safe unders into painful beats, leaving the show at 3 and 2 over its last five picks and 6 and 4 over its last ten heading into a Tuesday, July 7 card loaded with a World Cup window and sixteen Major League Baseball games. Warner turns first to the United States exit from the World Cup, describing goalkeeping mistakes on Monday night as some of the worst imaginable and pointing out that Portugal and Spain, both heavy favorites, needed stoppage time goals just to survive, a pattern that has produced ten stoppage time losses on his card this tournament even as he remains over five hundred overall. He breaks down an 11 a.m. Central kickoff between Argentina and Egypt, explaining a heavily juiced one and a half goal Argentina favorite against plus money on Egypt at a goal and a quarter, walking through how a one goal loss wins half the bet, a draw or win cashes it fully, and a two goal loss loses it all, while noting Lionel Messi alone can move plenty of money before the noon Eastern kickoff. He follows with a 3 p.m. Central match between Switzerland and Colombia, praising Swiss captain Granit Xhaka as one of the best midfield conductors in Europe and leaning toward Switzerland at any underdog price alongside the under at two and a quarter goals, while crediting Colombia's group win over Portugal as more a product of betting against Portugal than betting on Colombia itself. Warner then details how both World Cup moneylines have moved before shifting into a full baseball slate that opens with a Milwaukee and St. Louis doubleheader, where Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound fresh off a rough outing against Cincinnati. He works through Chicago and Baltimore, where an injury prone veteran finally looks like himself, Atlanta and Pittsburgh, where two bad bullpen nights make the matchup tough to trust, New York and Tampa Bay, Detroit and Oakland, Seattle and Miami, Houston and Washington, Philadelphia and Cincinnati, Kansas City and New York, a Boston and Chicago battle he calls tricky given his rule against road favorites, Cleveland and Minnesota, the doubleheader nightcap between Milwaukee and St. Louis, Los Angeles and Texas, Arizona and San Diego, Toronto and San Francisco, and a closing matchup between Colorado and Los Angeles that Warner calls far too cheap on the favorite. He closes the show with an update on an expired promo code, a promise to try to bring it back for Pregame.com, and his best bet of the night on the Miami Marlins and Max Meyer at home, calling it backing the hand that has fed the show all season and refusing to bite it before pointing listeners to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Straight Outta Vegas AM on social media.

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